스포츠베팅 | Cases and Studies in Sports Betting | 体育博彩
- date : 2015-05-20 01:10|hit : 2452
-
- Article] Using a case-based reasoning approach for trading in sports betting markets
-
DocNo of ILP: 746
Doc. Type: Article
Title: Using a case-based reasoning approach for trading in sports betting markets
Authors: Alberola, JM; Garcia-Fornes, A
Full Name of Authors: Alberola, Juan M.; Garcia-Fornes, Ana
Keywords by Author: Sports betting markets; Trading; Odds prediction; Case-based reasoning; Humans
Keywords Plus: PREDICTION; SYSTEM
Abstract: The sports betting market has emerged as one of the most lucrative markets in recent years. Trading in sports betting markets entails predicting odd movements in order to bet on an outcome, whilst also betting on the opposite outcome, at different odds in order to make a profit, regardless of the final result. These markets are mainly composed by humans, which take decisions according to their past experience in these markets. However, human rational reasoning is limited when taking quick decisions, being influenced by emotional factors and offering limited calibration capabilities for estimating probabilities. In this paper, we show how artificial techniques could be applied to this field and demonstrate that they can outperform even the bevahior of high-experienced humans. To achieve this goal, we propose a case-based reasoning model for trading in sports betting markets, which is integrated in an agent to provide it with the capabilities to take trading decisions based on future odd predictions. In order to test the performance of the system, we compare trading decisions taken by the agent with trading decisions taken by human traders when they compete in real sports betting markets.
Cate of OECD: Computer and information sciences
Year of Publication: 2013
Business Area: lottery
Detail Business: sport betting
Country: Netherlands
Study Area:
Name of Journal: APPLIED INTELLIGENCE
Language: English
Country of Authors: [Alberola, Juan M.; Garcia-Fornes, Ana] Univ Politecn Valencia, Dept Sistemes Informat & Computacio, Valencia 46022, Spain
Press Adress: Alberola, JM (reprint author), Univ Politecn Valencia, Dept Sistemes Informat & Computacio, Cami de Vera S-N, Valencia 46022, Spain.
Email Address: jalberola@dsic.upv.es
Citaion: Garcia-Fornes, Ana/0000-0003-4482-8793
Funding: CONSOLIDER-INGENIO [CSD2007-00022, TIN2011-27652-C03-01]; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion de Espana [AP2007-00289]
Lists of Citation: AAMODT A, 1994, AI COMMUN, V7, P39; Aamodt A, 1990, TOPICS CASE BASED RE, P274; Ahn JJ, 2012, APPL INTELL, V36, P553, DOI 10.1007/s10489-011-0275-2; Alberola JM, 2010, LECT NOTES ARTIF INT, V6251, P197, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-16178-0_19; Ates C, 2004, MSC FINANCE INT BUSI; Berlemann M, 2001, PREDICTIVE ACCURACY; Chen YL, 2008, ACM S THEORY COMPUT, P305; Debnath S, 2003, P 4 ANN ACM C EL COM, P258, DOI 10.1145/779928.779987; FISCHHOFF B, 1977, J EXP PSYCHOL HUMAN, V3, P552, DOI 10.1037//0096-1523.3.4.552; Forsythe R, 1999, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V39, P83, DOI 10.1016/S0167-2681(99)00027-X; Fortnow L, 2005, DECIS SUPPORT SYST, V39, P87, DOI 10.1016/j.dss.2004.08.010; Gayer G, 2010, GAME ECON BEHAV, V68, P130, DOI 10.1016/j.geb.2009.05.002; Guo M, 2009, P 8 INT C AUT AG MUL, P201; Huang W., 2004, INT J INFORM TECHNOL, V3, P145, DOI 10.1142/S0219622004000969; Hullermeier E, 2007, CASE BASED APPROXIMA, V44; Kim KJ, 2012, APPL INTELL, V36, P887, DOI 10.1007/s10489-011-0303-2; LeBaron B, 1998, J EC DYN CONTROL; Liu YH, 2012, APPL INTELL, V36, P308, DOI 10.1007/s10489-010-0262-z; Love BC, 2008, MSC FINANCE INT BUSI; Luque C, 2011, APPL INTELL, V34, P116, DOI 10.1007/s10489-009-0184-9; Mantaras R., 2005, KNOWL ENG REV, V20, P215; Moody J, 1995, P INT S ART NEUR NET; Ontanon S, 2009, LECT NOTES COMPUT SC, V5384, P181; Ontanon S, 2011, MULTIAGENT GRID SYST, V7, P95; PALMER RG, 1994, PHYSICA D, V75, P264, DOI 10.1016/0167-2789(94)90287-9; Pennock D., 2001, P 7 ACM SIGKDD INT C, P174, DOI 10.1145/502512.502537; Pennock D, 2002, P 18 ANN C UNC ART I, P404; Plott C, 2000, SO EC J, V67, P2; Qian B, 2007, APPL INTELL, V26, P25, DOI 10.1007/s10489-006-0001-7; Raudys S, 2006, LECT NOTES COMPUT SC, V4029, P653; Schmidt C, 2002, ACCURATE DO MARKETS; Shiu SCK, 2004, APPL INTELL, V21, P233, DOI 10.1023/B:APIN.0000043556.29968.81; Wellman MP, 2004, J ARTIF INTELL RES, V21, P19
Number of Citaion: 33
Publication: SPRINGER
City of Publication: DORDRECHT
Address of Publication: VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
ISSN: 0924-669X
29-Character Source Abbreviation: APPL INTELL
ISO Source Abbreviation: Appl. Intell.
Volume: 38
Version: 3
Start of File: 465
End of File: 477
DOI: 10.1007/s10489-012-0381-9
Number of Pages: 13
Web of Science Category: Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Subject Category: Computer Science
Document Delivery Number: 104QC
Unique Article Identifier: WOS:000316008400010
[이 게시물은 박장호님에 의해 2015-05-20 14:37:00 GAMBLING에서 이동 됨]
- reply : 0
-
- list
-
- prev
- next