위험관리 | Cases and Studies of Risk Management in Lottery & Gambling | 危險管理
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- Article] Mathematical Description and Analysis of Adaptive Risk Choice Behavior
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DocNo of ILP: 903
Doc. Type: Article
Title: Mathematical Description and Analysis of Adaptive Risk Choice Behavior
Authors: Okada, I; Yamamoto, H
Full Name of Authors: Okada, Isamu; Yamamoto, Hitoshi
Keywords by Author: Design; Economics; Human Factors; Theory; Adaptive process; mutation; replicator dynamics; risk; decision theory; risk choice strategy; sequentiality; winner-takes-all
Keywords Plus: EXPECTED-UTILITY; ASPIRATION LEVEL; DECISION-MAKING; ATTITUDES; GAMES; PREFERENCES; EVOLUTION; CONFLICT; AVERSION; COOPERATION
Abstract: Which risk should one choose when facing alternatives with different levels of risk? We discuss here adaptive processes in such risk choice behavior by generalizing the study of Roos et al. [2010]. We deal with an n-choice game in which every player sequentially chooses n times of lotteries of which there are two types: a safe lottery and a risky lottery. We analyze this model in more detail by elaborating the game. Based on the results of mathematical analysis, replicator dynamics analysis, and numerical simulations, we derived some salient features of risk choice behavior. We show that all the risk strategies can be divided into two groups: persistence and nonpersistence. We also proved that the dynamics with perturbation in which a mutation is installed is globally asymptotically stable to a unique equilibrium point for any initial population. The numerical simulations clarify that the number of persistent strategies seldom increases regardless of the increase in n, and suggest that a rarity of dominant choice strategies is widely observed in many social contexts. These facts not only go hand-in-hand with some well-known insights from prospect theory, but may also provide some theoretical hypotheses for various fields such as behavioral economics, ecology, sociology, and consumer behavioral theory.
Cate of OECD: Computer and information sciences
Year of Publication: 2013
Business Area: lottery
Detail Business: lottery
Country: USA
Study Area:
Name of Journal: ACM TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGY
Language: English
Country of Authors: [Okada, Isamu] Soka Univ, Dept Business Adm, Tokyo, Japan; [Yamamoto, Hitoshi] Rissho Univ, Dept Business Adm, Tokyo, Japan
Press Adress: Okada, I (reprint author), Soka Univ, Dept Business Adm, Tokyo, Japan.
Email Address: okada@soka.ac.jp
Citaion:
Funding: KAKENHI [22510160, 22530284, 22330111, 22500235, 23500308]
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Number of Citaion: 40
Publication: ASSOC COMPUTING MACHINERY
City of Publication: NEW YORK
Address of Publication: 2 PENN PLAZA, STE 701, NEW YORK, NY 10121-0701 USA
ISSN: 2157-6904
29-Character Source Abbreviation: ACM T INTEL SYST TEC
ISO Source Abbreviation: ACM Trans. Intell. Syst. Technol.
Volume: 4
Version: 1
Start of File:
End of File:
DOI: 10.1145/2414425.2414442
Number of Pages: 21
Web of Science Category: Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence; Computer Science, Information Systems
Subject Category: Computer Science
Document Delivery Number: 185IV
Unique Article Identifier: WOS:000321962000017
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