게임설계 | Cases and Studies of Game Design in Lottery & Gambling | 游戏设计
- date : 2015-05-20 01:10|hit : 1858
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- Article] Inferring Conjunctive Probabilities From Noisy Samples: Evidence for the Configural Weighted Average Model
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DocNo of ILP: 230
Doc. Type: Article
Title: Inferring Conjunctive Probabilities From Noisy Samples: Evidence for the Configural Weighted Average Model
Authors: Jenny, MA; Rieskamp, J; Nilsson, H
Full Name of Authors: Jenny, Mirjam A.; Rieskamp, Joerg; Nilsson, Hakan
Keywords by Author: probability judgment; conjunction fallacy; conjunctive probabilities; cognitive modeling; hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation
Keywords Plus: INFERENCE JUDGMENT; SIGNED SUMMATION; FALLACY; REPRESENTATIVENESS; DECISION; FORMATS; CHOICE; VALUES; ERRORS; RULES
Abstract: Judging whether multiple events will co-occur is an important aspect of everyday decision making. The underlying probabilities of occurrence are usually unknown and have to be inferred from experience. Using a rigorous, quantitative model comparison, we investigate how people judge the conjunctive probabilities of multiple events to co-occur. In 2 experiments, participants had to repeatedly choose between pairs of 2 conjunctive events (represented as 2 gambles). To estimate the probability that both events occur, they had access to a small sample of information. The 1st experiment consisted of a balanced set of gambles, whereas in the 2nd experiment, the gambles were constructed such that the models maximally differed in their predictions. A hierarchical Bayesian approach used for estimating the models' parameters and for testing the models against each other showed that the majority of participants were best described by the configural weighted average model. This model performed best in predicting people's choices, and it assumes that constituent probabilities are ranked by importance, weighted accordingly, and added up. The cognitive modeling approach provides an understanding of the cognitive processes underlying people's conjunctive probability judgments.
Cate of OECD: Psychology
Year of Publication: 2014
Business Area: gamble
Detail Business: gamble
Country: USA
Study Area:
Name of Journal: JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-LEARNING MEMORY AND COGNITION
Language: English
Country of Authors: [Jenny, Mirjam A.; Rieskamp, Joerg] Univ Basel, Dept Psychol, Basel, Switzerland; [Nilsson, Hakan] Uppsala Univ, Dept Psychol, Uppsala, Sweden
Press Adress: Jenny, MA (reprint author), Max Planck Inst Human Dev, Ctr Adapt Rat, Lentzeallee 94, D-14195 Berlin, Germany.
Email Address: jenny@mpib-berlin.mpg.de
Citaion:
Funding: Swiss National Science Foundation [100014_126721/1, 100014_138174/1]
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Number of Citaion: 51
Publication: AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC
City of Publication: WASHINGTON
Address of Publication: 750 FIRST ST NE, WASHINGTON, DC 20002-4242 USA
ISSN: 0278-7393
29-Character Source Abbreviation: J EXP PSYCHOL LEARN
ISO Source Abbreviation: J. Exp. Psychol.-Learn. Mem. Cogn.
Volume: 40
Version: 1
Start of File: 203
End of File: 217
DOI: 10.1037/a0034261
Number of Pages: 15
Web of Science Category: Psychology; Psychology, Experimental
Subject Category: Psychology
Document Delivery Number: 280RX
Unique Article Identifier: WOS:000329049600014
[이 게시물은 HyeJung Mo…님에 의해 2015-05-20 14:56:52 GAMBLING에서 이동 됨]
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