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- date : 2015-05-20 01:10|hit : 1949
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- Article] Probability and time
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DocNo of ILP: 665
Doc. Type: Article
Title: Probability and time
Authors: Zaffalon, M; Miranda, E
Full Name of Authors: Zaffalon, Marco; Miranda, Enrique
Keywords by Author: Temporal reasoning; Imprecise probabilities; Conditioning; Lower previsions; Sets of desirable gambles; Coherence; Conglomerability
Keywords Plus: BELIEF REVISION; SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY; DYNAMIC COHERENCE; LOWER PREVISIONS; LOGIC; KINEMATICS; ADDITIVITY; ARGUMENTS; EXTENSION; INFERENCE
Abstract: Probabilistic reasoning is often attributed a temporal meaning, in which conditioning is regarded as a normative rule to compute future beliefs out of current beliefs and observations. However, the well-established 'updating interpretation' of conditioning is not concerned with beliefs that evolve in time, and in particular with future beliefs. On the other hand, a temporal justification of conditioning was proposed already by De Moivre and Bayes, by requiring that current and future beliefs be consistent. We reconsider the latter approach while dealing with a generalised version of the problem, using a behavioural theory of imprecise probability in the form of coherent lower previsions as well as of coherent sets of desirable gambles, and letting the possibility space be finite or infinite. We obtain that using conditioning is normative, in the imprecise case, only if one establishes future behavioural commitments at the same time of current beliefs. In this case it is also normative that present beliefs be conglomerable, which is a result that touches on a long-term controversy at the foundations of probability. In the remaining case, where one commits to some future behaviour after establishing present beliefs, we characterise the several possibilities to define consistent future assessments; this shows in particular that temporal consistency does not preclude changes of mind. And yet, our analysis does not support that rationality requires consistency in general, even though pursuing consistency makes sense and is useful, at least as a way to guide and evaluate the assessment process. These considerations narrow down in the special case of precise probability, because this formalism cannot distinguish the two different situations illustrated above: it turns out that the only consistent rule is conditioning and moreover that it is not rational to be willing to stick to precise probability while using a rule different from conditioning to compute future beliefs; rationality requires in addition the disintegrability of the present-time probability. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Cate of OECD: Computer and information sciences
Year of Publication: 2013
Business Area: gamble
Detail Business: gamble
Country: Netherlands
Study Area:
Name of Journal: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Language: English
Country of Authors: [Zaffalon, Marco] Ist Dalle Molle Studi Intelligenza Artificiale ID, CH-6928 Lugano, Switzerland; [Miranda, Enrique] Univ Oviedo, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Oviedo 33007, Spain
Press Adress: Zaffalon, M (reprint author), Ist Dalle Molle Studi Intelligenza Artificiale ID, Galleria 2, CH-6928 Lugano, Switzerland.
Email Address: zaffalon@idsia.ch; mirandaenrique@uniovi.es
Citaion:
Funding: Swiss NSF [200020_134759/1, 200020_137680/1]; Hasler foundation [10030]; Spanish project [MTM2010-17844]
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Number of Citaion: 72
Publication: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
City of Publication: AMSTERDAM
Address of Publication: PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
ISSN: 0004-3702
29-Character Source Abbreviation: ARTIF INTELL
ISO Source Abbreviation: Artif. Intell.
Volume: 198
Version:
Start of File: 1
End of File: 51
DOI: 10.1016/j.artint.2013.02.005
Number of Pages: 51
Web of Science Category: Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Subject Category: Computer Science
Document Delivery Number: 152NW
Unique Article Identifier: WOS:000319539400001
[이 게시물은 HyeJung Mo…님에 의해 2015-05-20 14:56:52 GAMBLING에서 이동 됨]
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