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- Article] Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets
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DocNo of ILP: 3278
Doc. Type: Article
Title: Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets
Authors: Seybert, N; Bloomfield, R
Full Name of Authors: Seybert, Nicholas; Bloomfield, Robert
Keywords by Author: wishful thinking; betting; desirability bias; unrealistic optimism; motivated reasoning; contagion; markets; investors; investing; gambling; information aggregation
Keywords Plus: RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; SECURITY MARKETS; ASSET PRICES; INFORMATION; EFFICIENCY; STOCK; RISK; DESIRABILITY; PROBABILITY; BIAS
Abstract: Prior research provides only weak and controversial evidence that people overestimate the likelihood of desirable events (wishful thinking), but strong evidence that people bet more heavily on those events (wishful betting). Two experiments show that wishful betting contaminates beliefs in laboratory financial markets because wishful betters appear to possess more favorable information than they actually do. As a consequence, market interaction exacerbates rather than mitigates wishful thinking. This phenomenon, "contagion of wishful thinking," could be problematic in many settings where people infer others' beliefs from their behavior.
Cate of OECD: Economics and business
Year of Publication: 2009
Business Area: gamble
Detail Business: gamble
Country: Germany
Study Area: market, market, Security, probability, probability, invester, motivation, risk
Name of Journal: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
Language: English
Country of Authors: [Seybert, Nicholas] Univ Texas Austin, McCombs Sch Business, Austin, TX 78712 USA; [Bloomfield, Robert] Cornell Univ, Johnson Grad Sch Management, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
Press Adress: Seybert, N (reprint author), Univ Texas Austin, McCombs Sch Business, Austin, TX 78712 USA.
Email Address: nick.seybert@mccombs.utexas.edu; rjb9@cornell.edu
Citaion:
Funding:
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Number of Citaion: 42
Publication: INFORMS
City of Publication: HANOVER
Address of Publication: 7240 PARKWAY DR, STE 310, HANOVER, MD 21076-1344 USA
ISSN: 0025-1909
29-Character Source Abbreviation: MANAGE SCI
ISO Source Abbreviation: Manage. Sci.
Volume: 55
Version: 5
Start of File: 738
End of File: 751
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0973
Number of Pages: 14
Web of Science Category: Management; Operations Research & Management Science
Subject Category: Business & Economics; Operations Research & Management Science
Document Delivery Number: 444WQ
Unique Article Identifier: WOS:000266011700004
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