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- Article] Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders
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DocNo of ILP: 2441
Doc. Type: Article
Title: Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders
Authors: Healy, PJ; Linardi, S; Lowery, JR; Ledyard, JO
Full Name of Authors: Healy, Paul J.; Linardi, Sera; Lowery, J. Richard; Ledyard, John O.
Keywords by Author: information aggregation; prediction markets; mechanism design
Keywords Plus: PARIMUTUEL BETTING MARKETS; INFORMATION AGGREGATION; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; SECURITY MARKETS; ASSET MARKETS
Abstract: Double auction prediction markets have proven successful in large-scale applications such as elections and sporting events. Consequently, several large corporations have adopted these markets for smaller-scale internal applications where information may be complex and the number of traders is small. Using laboratory experiments, we test the performance of the double auction in complex environments with few traders and compare it to three alternative mechanisms. When information is complex we find that an iterated poll (or Delphi method) outperforms the double auction mechanism. We present five behavioral observations that may explain why the poll performs better in these settings.
Cate of OECD: Economics and business
Year of Publication: 2010
Business Area: other
Detail Business: medicine & science
Country: Germany
Study Area: market, market, Security, prediction, prediction, behavior
Name of Journal: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
Language: English
Country of Authors: [Healy, Paul J.] Ohio State Univ, Dept Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA; [Linardi, Sera; Ledyard, John O.] CALTECH, Div Humanities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; [Lowery, J. Richard] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Finance, McCombs Sch Business, Austin, TX 78712 USA
Press Adress: Healy, PJ (reprint author), Ohio State Univ, Dept Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA.
Email Address: healy.52@osu.edu; slinardi@hss.caltech.edu; richard.lowery@mccombs.utexas.edu; jledyard@hss.catlech.edu
Citaion:
Funding: National Science Foundation [SES-0847406]
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Number of Citaion: 41
Publication: INFORMS
City of Publication: HANOVER
Address of Publication: 7240 PARKWAY DR, STE 310, HANOVER, MD 21076-1344 USA
ISSN: 0025-1909
29-Character Source Abbreviation: MANAGE SCI
ISO Source Abbreviation: Manage. Sci.
Volume: 56
Version: 11
Start of File: 1977
End of File: 1996
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1100.1226
Number of Pages: 20
Web of Science Category: Management; Operations Research & Management Science
Subject Category: Business & Economics; Operations Research & Management Science
Document Delivery Number: 679GZ
Unique Article Identifier: WOS:000284151200007
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